Cost overruns risk assessment from materials price variation for construction project of middle-income condominium

Abstract

Quantitative analysis to assess the cost overruns risk (COR) in the construction from the variation of materials cost in middle-income condominium project constructed beside the sky train all of area in Bangkok .The project area is about 300-400 squa re two-meters, during 2549 to 255 1 B.E. and 200 to 250 million Baht. Material proportion analysis, Monte carlo simulation and linear regression model were main methods of data analyzing. The research results point that the material proportion 6 categories have re late to materials cost variation. COR from materials cost variation and situation model valued 1.06 19. It reflected contingency of the middle-income condominium project was 6. 19%. The correlation between COR and the materials proportion had presented in linear regression equation. Then Architects and the project developer can manage the cost overruns risk form material cost variation by considering the electricity and water supply, iron, wood, architecture materials, sanitary wares and concrete product respectively. Significantly, research suggestion reflects that architectural study cannot lean on only architectural elements. To decrease the effects from globalization architects must aware other variables: finance, business etc.