An analysis of the frequencies, meanings, and functions of epistemic modalities in George W. Bush's Iraq war speeches

Abstract

The justification for the Iraq War of 2003 remains a highly controversial topic, with extensive political studies having been conducted to account for the issue and examine how George W. Bush motivated the UN to remove the Iraqi government. Building on this analysis, the current study aims to contribute to the understanding of the role of epistemic modality in political speeches during the Iraq War of 20 years ago by analysing only two genres: State of the Union Addresses and War Speeches. To achieve this, both quantitative and qualitative methods were employed, focusing on epistemic modality using an eclectic modal consisting of research by Biber (2006), Ho (2018), Saeed (2016), Simon-Vandenbergen and Aijmer (2007), Varttala (2001), and Vukovic (2014). The analysis identified five types of epistemic modality - epistemic modal nouns, modal verbs, lexical verbs, adverbs, and adjectives - with meanings ranging from certainty to likelihood. Additionally, fourteen functions were identified: anticipation, assertion, assumption, contemplation, conviction, desire, hedging, incitement, likelihood/possibility, decision-making, prediction, recommendation, tentative assertion, and trickiness/elusiveness. The findings demonstrate that George W. Bush utilised these types of epistemic modalities to inspire the American public about the Iraq War, making his speeches sound diplomatic and believable, generating public agreement and support, reassuring the public, and diminishing the concerns of opponents. However, the results suggest that Bush did not take full responsibility for the consequences of the war, exposing his policy and agenda towards the Iraqi government. The study highlights the importance of epistemic modality in political communication and its impact on public opinion. Further research is needed to fully understand the impact of language on shaping political decisions. In particular, this study significantly contributes to the field by exploring the subtle implications of epistemic modality in the analysis of Bush's speeches on the Iraq War. It also introduces an eclectic framework for analysis, emphasising the novelty of the scope of this study.