UNEP ozone layer review : technical feasibility of the montreal protocol

Abstract

Human activities are now clearly threatening the very atmospheric life support system of mankind. Ozone layer depleting chemicals, principally CFCs, halons, methyl chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride, represent the cutting edge of that threat. If we allow this depletion to occur (i.e., we do not succeed in amending the Protocol and achieving global compliance) what will life be like in the year 2050? Perhaps not too pleasant! We could expect routine health advisory notices warning the public of high radiation counts and requesting we stay indoors between the hours of 10:00 am and 3:00 pm. We could expect to see very major increases in suffering from skin cancer (1% decrease in ozone relates to a 3% increase in skin cancer). We can expect to see major increases in the incidence of infectious diseases and a decrease in the effectiveness of vaccination programmes. This will be especially important in the tropics. There will also be reductions in the productivity of the oceans and the output of the world's lungs brought about by phytoplankton damage. Reductions in the yield of crops such as soy beans, wheat, etc. will eliminate surpluses that were heretofore directed to the starving masses in the world. The bottom line is that ozone depletion will adversely affect every human being in every region on this planet. This is not the kind of world we, who can do something about it, want to bequeath to future generations. Therefore, we must take prompt and appropriate action to stop this global experiment with the lives of our children and future generations. But let us not be mistaken as to what we can and cannot do. Very few of us can identify with, or are prepared to return to, a world without a refrigerated food supply, air conditioning, sterile medical equipment to mention but a few of the very high societal value uses of these chemicals. The technology review conducted pursuant to Article 6 of the Montreal Protocol under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was designed to answer the question... what is do-able?