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Title:	Spatiotemporal assessment of snow cover dynamics in the upper indus basin pakistan and its consequences on the future hydropower generation capacity
Authors:	Hazrat Bilal (P85976)
Supervisor:	Chamhuri Siwar, Emeritus Prof.
Keywords:	Hydroelectric power plants -- Pakistan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia -- Dissertations Dissertations, Academic -- Malaysia
Issue Date:	10-Sep-2019
Description:	Pakistan’s hydropower sector depends heavily on glacier and snowmelt water that originates from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is expected that climate change will have adverse effects on future hydropower generation capacity as a result of fluctuations in the magnitude, seasonality and hydrological extremes of the Indus River runoff. The possible effects of climate change on the Indus River flow are investigated using Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) along with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow product data and ground-based hydrometeorological data. Four RCMs from CORDEX is used for temperature, precipitation and snow-covered area projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Mann Kendall trend, Mann Whitney Pettitt test and Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation tests are utilized with significance level p<0.05. MODIS snow cover data analysis indicated a significant increase in the snow-covered area situated 5000 meters above sea level. In contrast, multi-model RCMs projection indicated decreasing snow-covered area under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2099. Similarly, ground-based precipitation data indicated decreasing trend while model data indicated an increment of 17-21% in the total monthly precipitation by 2099. Runoff projections indicated that Indus river flow will increase under both RCP scenarios hence suggesting more water availability in the future. Thus, an increase in the annual Indus river flow is projected to increase the electricity generation capacity of future hydropower projects. Therefore, this research recommends water conservation through the building of more robust dams in catering for extreme weathers as well as to supply adequate water for hydroelectric power generation during low flows. The spillway discharge capacity of future dams should also be upgraded to deal with summer peak flows. Likewise, plantation in the upstream areas can help to regulate water flow and reduce siltation, while the construction of more dams can mitigate flood risks in downstream areas, hence increasing the resilience of hydropower sector to climate change. These water conservation management measures are expected to have significant policy implication for the heavily dependent freshwater sectors like hydropower, agriculture and tourism.,Ph.D.
Pages:	199
Call Number:	TK1081.B535 2019 tesis
Publisher:	UKM, Bangi
Appears in Collections:	Institute for Environment and Development / Institut Alam Sekitar dan Pembangunan (LESTARI)

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