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Title:	Impacts of climate change on agricultural production and the Malaysian economy: an empirical analysis of computable general equilibrium model
Authors:	Md. Sujahangir Kabir Sarkar (P60055)
Supervisor:	Rawshan Ara Begum, Assoc. Prof. Dr.
Keywords:	Climatic changes -- Malaysia Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Malaysia Agriculture -- Malaysia -- Planning Malaysia -- Climate Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia -- Dissertations Dissertations, Academic -- Malaysia
Issue Date:	29-May-2016
Description:	The impacts of climate change could affect economic activity by influencing the level of output such as agricultural yields, or influencing an economy‘s ability to grow, for example by affecting investments or institutions that influence productivity growth. Consequently, climate change is a major concern of the developing countries including Malaysia. This study aims to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate change such as temperature increase and sea level rise in Malaysia. Secondary data pertaining to major agricultural production such as oil palm, paddy and rubber, their area of production and annual average temperature for the year of 1980 to 2010 were collected from the Department of Statistics and the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Time series analysis of multiple regression models was applied to investigate the relationship between climate change variables and major agricultural productions in Malaysia. To analyse the macroeconomic impacts of climate change, a countrywide CGE (computable general equilibrium) model was employed by developing a social accounting matrix (SAM) from the latest Input-Output Table 2010 with additional data of national finance, income and capital account. The application of CGE model was based on LES (linear expenditure system) utility function, Leontief production function, CES (constant elasticity of substitution) function, CET (constant elasticity of transformation) function and Armington CES function for fourteen (14) economic sectors of 124 sectors. The analysis of multiple regression model found that there is a negative relationship between climate change variables and major agricultural production. If temperature rises by 1oC, 2oC, 3oC and 4oC, production of oil palm, rubber and paddy would decrease between 10-41%, 1-4% and 3.5-14% respectively. In contrast, sea level rise (SLR) of 0.5 meter, 1 meter and 2 meter would result a loss of production by 2-8% for oil palm 1-6% for rubber and 0.28-1% for paddy which is measured by the agricultural land loss. The simulation of CGE model demonstrates a detail of sectoral and macroeconomic impacts for the eight (8) states of climate change such as temperature rise by 1oC, 2oC, 2oC of NC2 projection, 3oC and 4oC; and SLR by 0.5 meter, 1 meter and 2 meter. For instance, due to the temperature rise of 20C, the total sectoral economic loss estimated to be RM1307 million whereas major sectors including paddy, rubber, oil palm, other agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and transport and communication would decrease gross domestic outputs by 0.20%, 0.17%, 0.19%, 0.15%, 0.19%, 0.10% and 0.05% respectively. On the other hand, due to the SLR by 1 meter, sectoral economic loss amounted to RM258 million whereas sectors of paddy, rubber, oil palm and manufacturing would decrease gross domestic output by 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.04% and 0.04% respectively. The study results also showed that climate change would moderately effect on the other macroeconomic aspects such as domestic sale, household consumption, total investment, export and import in Malaysia. Moreover, the total GDP loss estimated as RM307 million to RM1223 million due to the temperature rise of 1oC to 4oC while RM60 million to RM241 million for the SLR of 0.5 meter to 2 meter. The CGE simulation results indicate that Malaysian economy faces greater impacts of temperature rise compared to that of the sea level rise. The findings of the study and its recommendations and policy implications would be useful for policy and decision making to mainstream climate change into the development plans and policies in Malaysia.,“Certification of Master's/Doctoral Thesis” is not available,Ph.D.
Pages:	259
Call Number:	QC903.2.M4S248 2016 tesis
Publisher:	UKM, Bangi
Appears in Collections:	Institute for Environment and Development / Institut Alam Sekitar dan Pembangunan (LESTARI)

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