The environmental impacts of economic cycle

Abstract

Many ASEAN countries experienced rapid economic expansion until 1996 (Table 1). Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia registered impressive rates of growth which earned them spots in the list of high performing Asian economies. While relatively late in the game, the Philippines posted significant growth as well and was gradually on its way to becoming a newly industrializing economy. The economic crisis which commenced in 1997 has dampened hopes of continued expansion in the ASEAN region. In that year, growth rates of most countries fell and, in the case of Thailand, turned negative. Likewise, projections indicate that rates for Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines will decrease by more than half in 1998 and will start to recover only in 1999 (Table 2). For Thailand and Indonesia, a worse fate awaits as rates are expected to turn positive only in 1999. Bad as they are, the figures are already considered optimistic by some as fears linger that the downturn could last beyond two years and hit countries deeper. In the Philippines, there are doubts that the economy will register positive growth in 1998, not only because of the worsening impacts of the economic crisis, but also due to the twin phenomena of El Niño and La Niña.