Accuracy considerations in tourism forecasting

Abstract

It is generally accepted that accuracy is a very important characteristic of forecasts of tourism demand. However, when considering probability forecasting it may not be necessary to forecast specific values with a high degree of precision, but only that the probability falls within a particular range of values. Furthermore, any knowledge relating to possible differences in the costs resulting from over- versus under-forecasting should be incorporated in the loss function when evaluating the appropriate management decision.