Issues and challenges for climate change in Sabah: an overview

Abstract

It is highlighted in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) that the many forms of environmental deviation (due to climate change) could induce negative impacts to human systems, mainly to the socioeconomic aspects (i.e. agricultural and forestry management, impacts on human health and the reduced ability to undertake certain activities). At the lower latitude regions in Malaysia such as in Sabah, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases of 1-2°C, which would increase the risk of hunger. A specific study on Sabah's long-term temperature fluctuation has shown a warming trend at the rate of 0.2 degree Celsius per-decade since 1961 (Dambul, 2005). A change in climate would also have an effect on the vegetation zones. The re-zoning of vegetation could change the range of pests available which would in turn lead to an increase in disease levels (both for human-beings and crops). These are the issues that would be explored in this working-paper by looking at the local context (Sabah as a case study). It is an interesting subject because Sabah is still considered an agrarian region, heavily dependent on its agricultural sector and nature- eco-agro tourism. Both industries are prone to the climate variability. Some of the key questions in this paper are: (a) What are the projected climate scenarios for Sabah with regard to the anticipated changing climate?; (b) How may such scenarios affect the socio-economic activities (giving special attention to the agriculture and tourism)?; and (c) What, when and how can mitigating and adapting strategies be planned/ implemented to cope with the changes?