Impact of the global economic crisis on Taiwan's industrial structure and firm activities

Abstract

At the closing of the recent G-8 summit (L'aquila, Italy), U.S. President Barack Obama declared that a disastrous economic collapse apparently has been averted, which is a much more upbeat tone compared to when he first took office and declared the economic recovery may not come till his second term in office. Last fall, as the catastrophic downturn was accepted as inevitable, the debate was whether the recovery will be L-shaped or V- shaped (Hou 2009a).' I had it on record last December that it will be V-shaped. I also predicted that China will fair far better than the U.S., but the U.S. will see recovery no later than August of 2009. 2 This was certainly against the mainstream belief at the time. However, things have changed rapidly in the last couple of months. Though the jury is still out regarding whether the U.S. economy will start to grow in August, but the consensus is that this should happen no later than the end of 2009. The Asian Development Bank Institute announced on August 5, 2009, that "East Asia's rebound from the worst global recession since the Great Depression may be "V-shaped ."