Climate change and sustainability of marine capture fisheries: an integrated approach for food security in Bangladesh

Abstract

Marine fisheries are relied upon by millions of people worldwide for their sustenance, however, this sector is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In Bangladesh, severely affected by climate change, fishing serves as a vital income source, with fish being a traditional staple alongside rice. Climate change alters the morphology, behavior, and distribution of marine fish, resulting in a change in abundance. Extreme climate events deplete resources and harm physical structures, thereby reducing fishing activities and production. This devastation affects subsistence plans, particularly for those who rely on small-scale marine fisheries. Fishermen, lacking awareness and defense capabilities, are particularly vulnerable. While they have adapted to normal climate variations, they now need to make further adjustments to cope with escalating impacts. This study addresses three primary objectives, utilizing a quantitative research approach to investigate the influence of climate change on marine fish production, vulnerability among two small-scale island fishing communities in Bangladesh, and their adaptation behaviors toward climate variables and change. Using the ARDL model, the first objective reveals significant long-term impacts of sea surface temperature, rainfall, sunshine, and wind on marine fish production. Additionally, average temperature has a negative impact in both short and long runs. CO2 emissions have a negative impact in the short run. The second objective, utilizing the IPCC framework, uncovers varying levels of livelihood vulnerability among small-scale marine fishermen based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The third objective, analyzed through PLS-SEM with data from Bangladeshi fishermen, establishes a positive relationship between components of the Health Belief Model (HBM) and adaptation behavior, mediated by awareness and attitude. This research contributes empirical evidence to discussions on climate change and offers recommendations for reducing vulnerability and implementing effective adaptation strategies for stakeholders.