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Title:	An empirical analysis on fiscal policy sustainability, macroeconomic stability and public debt-growth nexus
Authors:	Wan Farisan Wan Sulaiman (P71440)
Supervisor:	Zulkefly Abd. Karim, Assoc. Prof. Dr.
Keywords:	Fiscal policy
Issue Date:	6-Dec-2018
Description:	This thesis examines three issues related to fiscal policy. The three issues include fiscal sustainability, macroeconomic stability and the relationship between public debt and economic growth. The first two issues studied were limited to Malaysia, while the last issue was analysed for three ASEAN economies; namely, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. All of the issues covered the periods from 1980-2015. The issue of fiscal sustainability (Chapter 2) focuses on applying the fiscal sustainability indicator on its assessment. With the ensuing results, the impact of population ageing on fiscal sustainability was next analysed. This study utilised two fiscal sustainability indicators namely primary gap and recursive algorithm. From the results obtained through the use of the primary gap indicator, the impact of population ageing on fiscal policy sustainability was determined through the use of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The subsequent issue of macroeconomic stability for Malaysia (Chapter 3) was elucidated through the appropriate response of fiscal policy to macroeconomic changes called the fiscal reaction framework. The issue was investigated using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) test to determine an appropriate fiscal response to public debt and macroeconomic changes in a nonlinear relationship. Finally, the issue on the relationship between public debt and growth (Chapter 4) was examined using the Causal Bootstrap Rolling Window (BSRW) approach. The empirical study produced three main results. First, there was significant adverse effect of economic crisis and population ageing on fiscal sustainability. Second, the results from NARDL confirmed the significant positive relationship between increasing public debt ratio and primary fiscal balance, indicating fiscal sustainability, and decreasing output gap with primary fiscal balance thus indicating macroeconomic instability. Finally, results from BSRW method supported the relevance of public debt in achieving growth following economic crisis for Malaysia and to a smaller effect, for Singapore. While for Indonesia, public debt had shown to be significant to economic growth throughout the period of study.,Ph.D.
Pages:	172
Call Number:	HJ192.5.W343 2018 tesis
Publisher:	UKM, Bangi
Appears in Collections:	Faculty of Economy and Management / Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan

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