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Title:	Finance and firm's growth in four opec countries: evidence from dynamic panel and artificial intelligence estimations
Authors:	Ali Allameh Rad (P55457)
Supervisor:	Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Assoc. Prof. Dr.
Keywords:	Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries International business enterprises Investments Foreign Business enterprises -- Finance Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia -- Dissertations Dissertations, Academic -- Malaysia
Issue Date:	15-Oct-2019
Description:	The thesis aims to examine the role of internal and external finance on firm's growth for the case of selected Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) namely Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. The focal point of the study is to examine the reaction of firms' growth of the selected OPEC members against the impact of external sources of finance including finance through equity market (represented by Tobin's Q) and debt market (indicated by Leverage), and also the role of internal finance (cash flow). In addition, another controlling variables such as cost of doing business, economic growth, age of the firm; and country and industry specific factors are also taking into account in modeling the determinants of the firms' growth. The data set involves annual observations of 217 firms over 11 years period for 2000 to 2011. The baseline model is estimated using a dynamic panel General Method of Moment (GMM). Another important objective of the study is to develop different financial scenarios for the selected sample set to shed light on the growth path of the selected markets. To do so, using the estimated coefficients by the GMM system, two different growth paths are simulated and forecasted using the method of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The first scenario is based on the current trends of policies and the estimated values of variables. The second scenario is based on raising source of internal finance (cash flow) by 5% and reducing external finance (leverage) by 5% per year. For this purpose, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm is programmed in estimating the model. The main findings indicate that firms growth is positively and significantly influenced by the cash flow and economic growth; however, the leverage and cost of doing business are impedimenta of firms growth. The estimated coefficient for Tobin's Q indicates that firms growth is amplified by relaying on external finance from the equity market. Variable of Age presented negative but close to zero impact on the firms growth. Based on the simulation of current trends, small firms would have faced a financial crisis during 2015 and 2016 and their growth rate will be negative. Also, their remedial policies and financial recoveries could only raise the growth rates to about 1% in 2017 that shows a sluggish growth rate of small firms. Based on the simulated behavior of the large firms, during the financial crisis of 2015 and 2016 the growth rate is forecasted to decline to 2% and their recovery policies never lead them to get higher than 2% growth rate in 2017. Based on the findings, it can be recommended that in the selected OPEC countries, relying on internal finance by means of cash flow and relaxing dependency on external finance from debt market using leverage can spur firms growth rates, process of financial development, and economic growth. The study implications have reflected in the role of cash-flow" and "leverage" in the growth rate of firms
Pages:	187
Call Number:	HD2755.5R333 2019 tesis
Publisher:	UKM, Bangi
Appears in Collections:	Faculty of Economy and Management / Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan

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